February marks a pivotal moment in the African Union Commission elections, set to unfold in Ethiopia. This month will determine whether Raila Odinga steps away from local politics or continues his involvement, with his considerable political influence positioning him as a strong contender for the AU chairmanship.
The situation raises questions about the future of the ODM party, which has been in disarray since its unexpected alignment with President Ruto’s camp last year. Despite this collaboration, ODM has been critical of the President in an attempt to maintain its relevance as an opposition party. Key figures within ODM, such as Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna and Siaya Governor James Orengo, have stirred tensions with internal divisions and opposition sentiments.
Orengo, in particular, has warned those in Odinga’s circle who are overly supportive of Ruto’s government, urging them to avoid sycophantic behavior. Odinga himself has occasionally made sharp critiques from the sidelines, particularly at the funeral of activist Roselyn Odede, where he condemned the government for its handling of abductions and police brutality.
ODM’s leadership, including acting Party Leader Anyang’ Nyong’o, has insisted on staying out of the UDA’s agenda, while some Cabinet Secretaries like John Mbadi, Hassan Joho, Wycliffe Oparanya, and Opiyo Wandayi defend Ruto’s achievements, positioning themselves as new power brokers. Joho has even expressed a readiness to counter Ruto’s critics with equal force.
The party’s mixed signals, including claims that appointments to Ruto’s cabinet are rewards for the Luo community, point to a growing ideological rift within ODM. With ODM’s fate closely tied to UDA, any criticism of Ruto now seems hollow, leaving the party stuck between alliance and opposition.
Odinga’s time to transition ODM into Ruto’s UDA may have arrived, forming a potent alliance that could reshape the political landscape, especially with the rise of political figures like Rigathi Gachagua and a potential ‘mega’ alliance with Martha Karua, Kalonzo Musyoka, and other Azimio remnants. While Ruto is confident about the upcoming 2027 elections, he is unshaken, expecting a straightforward contest.
Last month’s merger between UDA and Musalia Mudavadi’s ANC is a positive sign, signaling the diminishing relevance of fringe parties. Despite having more than 80 registered political groups, many exist simply to benefit corrupt individuals.
The history of failed mergers, such as the 2017 Jubilee Party and Kanu’s 2002 merger with NDP, serves as a cautionary tale. Before stepping away from politics, Odinga’s final challenge is to relinquish control and allow ODM to merge with UDA, securing a strong partnership for the future. The approach ODM takes toward the 2027 election will ultimately define Odinga’s legacy and must avoid repeating past mistakes.
In the end, a few strong parties can drive positive change. A powerful alliance between ODM and UDA could create a more effective political landscape, similar to the success seen in the U.S. and the UK with their dominant parties.
