The Trump administration’s recent move to dismantle the US Agency for International Development (USAID) is expected to send shockwaves across Africa, with Kenya among the hardest-hit nations.
Local economic experts warn that this abrupt decision could cripple the global aid network, disrupting critical services.
“We are staring at an imminent crisis. The absence of USAID funding will trigger drug shortages, service suspensions, job losses, and even loss of lives. The economic fallout will be severe,” cautioned an economist familiar with USAID operations in Nairobi, who requested anonymity.
However, economic analyst Martin Kisuu downplayed fears of a total shutdown, suggesting that USAID’s projects are bound by contracts that the US government cannot abruptly terminate.
“USAID works through local partnerships in Kenya. The US administration understands that immediately cutting these ties would have dire consequences. Instead of a complete closure, we are likely to see a restructuring with budget cuts,” Kisuu explained.
USAID has been instrumental in humanitarian efforts, supporting programs against Female Genital Mutilation (FGM), Gender-Based Violence (GBV), and food insecurity.
“We were in the middle of a workshop on femicide cases in Nakuru when we were told to stop. Who stands to lose here? This is devastating,” lamented activist Wanjiru Mumbi.
Devastating Impact on Kenya’s Refugee Camps
For decades, USAID has played a crucial role in sustaining Kenya’s major refugee camps—Dadaab, Kakuma, and Kalobeyei—through its collaboration with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).
Mohammed Hutle Bull, the chairman of Garissa County Chiefs, voiced deep concern about the fate of over 800,000 refugees dependent on USAID-funded assistance.
“The camps are in panic. USAID is the backbone of Dadaab—without it, food distribution, medical services, and vaccinations will collapse. Malnutrition and disease will surge. Who will take over these programs?” he questioned.
USAID’s humanitarian division has long partnered with the UN World Food Program (WFP) to provide essential food aid, cash transfers, and vouchers for vulnerable communities.
The agency is also a key player in the U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), which has provided life-saving antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) to nearly 1.5 million Kenyans living with HIV.
With the US government having poured over $110 billion into the global HIV/AIDS response through PEPFAR—the largest commitment to a single disease in history—Kenya now faces uncertainty over continued access to these critical treatments.
Beyond healthcare, USAID has been a pillar of Kenya’s education, agriculture, security, and disaster response programs.
Now, with funding abruptly cut, questions loom over the fate of these essential projects and the millions of lives that depend on them.
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