Wamuzi News Ke
The recent findings from Trends and Insights For Africa (TIFA) Research have triggered a one-of-a-kind political uproar, undeniably revealing the extent of divisions in the major political parties of Kenya — the United Democratic Alliance (UDA), Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), and Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) — and at the same time, bringing to the surface a changeable public sentiment that could possibly alter the course of elections in 2027.
The release of survey results at the end of December 2025 has set off reactions of the highest stakes not only from party leaders but also from political operators, thus indicating that the disintegration of Kenya’s political map may happen more quickly than expected.
Fragmented Loyalties and Uncertain Futures: TIFA Findings
- Political Party Popularity Is in Flux — No Party Holds a Decisive Base
Conflicting interpretations of the latest TIFA data have emerged at different media outlets, thus leading to a political credibility crisis:
According to one set of findings, ODM is leading with 20% support, followed by UDA at 16%, while DCP of Gachagua is still stuck with around 6% — not at all what was expected from a party that is supposed to be gaining strength.
Earlier TIFA reports had UDA ahead of ODM, and DCP at 9%, which indicated the instability of political fortunes and the questionable interpretations of surveys.
These contradictory indicators are strengthening the belief in some political camps that polls may no longer be a reliable mirror of real political dynamics, thus arousing both denial and opportunism.
- Opposition Unity Doubtful — Only 38% Believe in a Single Candidate
The most recent survey conducted by TIFA indicates that only 38% of the Kenyan population thinks that the split opposition will come together under one presidential candidate in 2027 — a very negative evaluation of the party’s strategy and unity.
The fate of the resistance might be decided on this number, as the disputing of jurisdictions and policies of different parties turn a combined challenge to the ruling coalition more and more impossible.
Political Leaders React: Accusations, Ambitions, and Unrelenting Rhetoric
Gachagua: “ODM Loses Its Identity — DCP Will Emerge Triumphant”
In a very emotive speech yesterday, DCP chief and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua used the TIFA outcomes to attack both UDA and ODM:
He cautioned ODM leaders not to be associated with President William Ruto, asserting that such collaborations will take away their support in Nairobi and beyond.
Gachagua unashamedly proclaimed that DCP would present a candidate for president and create the next government, calling UDA and ODM nothing more than remnants of bygone days and claiming that his party is the only one capable of leading the disillusioned voters to a common ground.
His announcement is a bold challenge not only to the ruling circles but also to the classical opposition ranks, thereby tagging Gachagua as one of the most influential disruptive personalities in the current Kenyan political scene.
UDA Fires Back: Dismisses Gachagua’s Claims as “Panic-Driven”
In a rather rude and bold manner, UDA leaders refuted Gachagua’s interpretation of the survey and political claims:
Of UDA’s accusations he got what they called “fears of castration” and a plot to bring about undemocratic conditions just before the main elections.
Political desperation was what’s behind the allegations according to party leaders, who did not consider them as a credible analysis.
This situation is indicative of the growing divide between Kenya’s present ruling party and the political allies who were once friendly but have now become adversaries.
ODM in Crisis: Struggles within the Party amidst the Pressure without
On the other hand, ODM — which has been the most consistent opposition party in Kenya — is rocked:
The Party Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna has rejected the demand for his resignation publicly amidst the increase of factionalism, and he insists that ODM will not be part of any arrangement that challenges its identity.
This intra-party opposition is taking place at the same time when the party is trying to find out what its part is in the political situation where it is not certain about its popularity, and future partnerships are also not clear.
TIFA Report: A Sign of the Nation Disintegrating
The reactions to the TIFA report are indicating the same trends — together with the findings — that are changing the face of Kenyan politics:
- The loyalty of voters is declining: A significant chunk of the Kenyan population has detached itself from the main political parties, and thus there is a vacuum to be filled by new forces.
- Fragmentation of the opposition is creating the danger of the opposition losing its electoral base: The opposition may only be able to raise a very tiny signal in 2027 when less than a third of the voters have confidence in the unity of the opposition.
- New political actors are coming up: Although Gachagua’s DCP is still in the lower range of the polls, it has started to present itself as a potential king-maker or king-pin, attempting to get new power alignments across the different regions.
- The public mood is tumultuous and uncertain: The major political actors in Kenya have been facing political confusion and strategic misalignment caused by conflicting poll interpretations and divergent narratives from the leaders.
