Wamuzi News Ke
The political union between the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) has been a turbulent one, and now the latter might be forced to decide which way to go. After the post-Raila scenario, the new ODM leadership has made the game of threats very risky, and Ruto might emerge as the winner, or alternatively, the entire “Broad Government” may collapse catastrophically.
At the strategic retreat of the party’s top executives, the new demands formed a strong signal to the world that ODM was determined to be a crucial partner in the “broad government,” as in the past all they got were Cabinet seats; now the party is taking the Deputy Presidency and the complete transformation of the country’s tax policy as the cost of its support in the 2027 elections.
In an announcement that has caught off guard the president’s close aides, the new ODM leader, Oburu Oginga, has stated about the 2027 ticket that the “shareholder” roles must be reversed. The political space that the powerful Mt. Kenya region has vacated after the impeachment of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua is now being eyed by ODM, which is also planning to occupy it officially. According to the new terms set by the party, for Ruto to get the huge Western and Coastal regions’ votes, he will have to appoint an ODM running mate.
Basically, this demand means Kithure Kindiki, the present Deputy President, will have to fight off a wave of ODM heavyweights like Hassan Joho and Gladys Wanga, who are already being considered for the position.
ODM has not only changed the personnel but also has made the 10-point Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the late Raila Odinga and President Ruto in early 2025 into a weapon. The party’s position is that they demand “full and verifiable implementation” of the agenda before signing any formal coalition for 2027.
The terms are very aggressive and unprecedented:
- An audit of the national debt of Sh11 trillion to uncover “bad” loans.
2. A drastic cut in the cost of living, specifically the fuel levy and housing tax.
3. An entire civil service overhaul based on regional representation, which will end what ODM calls the “exclusive shareholder” era.
A referendum to establish a prime minister with executive powers—a proposal that echoes the failed BBI (Building Bridges Initiative) and has been so far the “twist” in the power struggle that mainstream analysts have not been able to pick up on.
The “twist” in this power struggle has been ODM’s move to play and position itself as the “Senior Shareholder,” which is why it has mostly gone unnoticed by the mainstream analysts. They are doing this to capitalize on the present government’s neglect of the Mt. Kenya area and thereby declare themselves the only force that can win a 50% plus one vote.
The young leaders in the party, with Edwin Sifuna as the secretary general, have sent a dire warning to the president: if he tries to renegotiate these terms, ODM will promptly switch to the “Anyone But Ruto” coalition that is being put together by Kalonzo Musyoka and Fred Matiang’i.
This ultimatum puts President Ruto in a difficult situation. If he gives in to ODM’s demand for the Deputy President position, he may end up losing the support of his Kalenjin and Mt. Kenya strongholds. If he says no, he will have to give up the power of ODM, which has been supporting him in the Parliament and grassroots since the Gen Z riots almost brought his government down in 2024.
As the nation draws nearer to the 2027 elections, the query is not about whether ODM is still in power, but who exactly is in charge. The new leaders of the party are not showing the same kindness as the ones who preceded them; they are not even close to being as emotional and sentimental as the previous leaders; rather, they seem to be more focused on business and are very much in a transactional mode.
