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Diplomatic Affairs analyst Ahmed Hashi predicts that Raila Odinga will lose the African Union Commission (AUC) chairperson seat.
He believes Djibouti’s candidate, Mahmoud Youssouf, will take the position. Hashi believes that interference from the French government influence Francophone countries to unite against Kenya’s candidate.
He suggests that Djibouti’s candidate is likely to win by a significant margin during the elections in February 2025.
Hashi draws parallels to the 2017 AUC elections. Kenya’s candidate, Amina Mohamed, lost to Chad’s Moussa Faki after last-minute changes by Uganda, Djibouti, and Burundi.
He emphasizes the influence of the French government in African Union politics. He also questions Raila’s bid for the seat at his age. He suggests that the continent needs a more energetic leader.
Raila will compete against candidates from Mauritius and Madagascar, with the winner needing to secure 66% of the votes.
President William Ruto has endorsed Raila for the AUC seat, expressing confidence in his leadership abilities. But, Hashi remains skeptical about Raila’s chances.
He cites historical influences and the need for a more dynamic leader. This is crucial in a continent where a significant part of the population is young. The upcoming elections in Addis Ababa are anticipated to be a significant moment in determining the next AUC chairperson.
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