
In what political analysts describe as a dramatic shift in Kenya’s political landscape, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is showing visible signs of decline in regions that were once its pillars of support.
By-election nominations have exposed cracks in the party’s base, as several ODM strongholds report a sharp drop in interested aspirants.In counties where ODM historically dominated local politics, expected candidates are staying silent.
In one constituency, former ODM stalwarts have opted out of the race altogether, citing confusion, lack of mobilization, and waning influence. In another, the party’s absence in key by-election nominations has opened the door for rival parties to make inroads in once uncontested territories.
Observers say the party’s struggles stem from a combination of internal leadership issues, voter fatigue, and competition from newer political formations. The failure to attract credible candidates in historically steadfast areas is being interpreted as a direct consequence of ODM’s inability to modernize its message and adapt to the changing needs of the electorate.
Rival parties are already circling. Grassroots organizers report growing momentum for contenders who present themselves as fresh alternatives—those promising accountability, local development, and more responsive leadership. If the trend continues into the November by-elections, ODM may see its dominance significantly challenged.