Wamuzi News Ke
Kenyans are staring down yet another wave of rising prices, as the global oil market reels from an unprecedented escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran.
In what analysts are calling the most severe Israeli assault on Iran in history, Friday’s airstrikes reportedly killed key Iranian military and nuclear officials—triggering a violent retaliation from Tehran. Iran responded with a barrage of over 100 drones and ballistic missiles targeting Israeli territory, as Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed “severe punishment.”
The dramatic escalation has sent global energy markets into turmoil.
Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, immediately spiked over 10% following the attack. Although it later eased to a 7% increase, it still closed at $74.23 (approximately KSh9,600) per barrel. The shockwaves have already begun affecting global supply chains and commodity prices—with Kenya not being spared.
Experts warn that if Iran’s vast oil infrastructure is targeted, Brent could soar to $80 (KSh10,400) or even $100 (KSh12,900) per barrel, a move that would unleash a tidal wave of inflation. While current prices are below the 2022 highs driven by the Ukraine invasion, the latest conflict could be even more destabilizing.
Oil is the lifeblood of global logistics—and every price hike ricochets across the economy. From fuel pumps in Nairobi to food shelves in Kisumu, Kenyans are already feeling the heat.
Just weeks ago, the International Energy Agency predicted a relative calm in oil prices due to slowing global demand and swelling inventories. But those forecasts have now been upended. As Iran flexes its military muscle and controls the vital Strait of Hormuz—a global chokepoint for oil shipments—markets are bracing for further chaos.
Tensions are also heating up in the Red Sea, where Iranian-backed Houthi rebels have ramped up attacks on commercial vessels, targeting ships perceived to be aligned with Israel. These attacks have forced global shipping firms to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope—an expensive detour that’s inflating costs for fuel, goods, and insurance.
Kenyan economists warn that the knock-on effects of these disruptions could derail national efforts to stabilize prices.
“Every extra shilling spent on oil imports due to global tension is a direct hit to our economy,” a Nairobi-based energy analyst told Wamuzi News.
Even the World Bank’s latest oil price projections—$64 (KSh8,300) per barrel in 2025—now seem uncertain. Should the crisis intensify, these numbers could be shattered.
In a rare show of unity, countries across the Middle East are calling for calm. Saudi Arabia condemned Israel’s actions as a “blatant breach of international law” and warned of the risk to global recovery. Jordan, Lebanon, and the Gulf Cooperation Council echoed similar sentiments.
Back home, Kenyans are bracing for tougher days ahead. Higher transport costs are likely to push up food prices and utility bills. Businesses are on edge. And as oil prices become a new battlefield in this geopolitical chess game, the economic fallout could hit every Kenyan household.
The world watches anxiously. But on the streets of Nairobi and across Kenya, the consequences are already being felt at the fuel pumps and market stalls.
